EMBA 8150

Assignment 1

1. Discuss any two types of decision making biases in a paragraph each – explain what the bias is, what problems it can cause, and how one might work to overcome that bias in oneself.

2. You want to predict the likelihood that a male prisoner released from prison after serving at least a 5-year sentence for being convicted of a violent crime is likely to commit another such crime within one year of being released. A released criminal may commit a violent crime again, or commit a non-violent crime, or stay clean (no crime of any kind) in that year after release. You believe that since some of the laws regarding violent crimes changed significantly in the year 1996, people convicted anytime during or before then are not relevant to the study.

a. What is the dependent variable? What possible values would it take on?

b. What is the outcome period of this study?

c. Define the sample time frame. Specifically, state what conditions must hold true for someone to be included in your sample.

d. Create a fictitious dataset with about 10 records and 5-7 columns to show what the data for such a project might look like. The dataset must include the dependent variable and a few independent variables that might potentially be reasonable predictors.

e. How might the results of the predictive model for this project be used in real life?

3. Open the Excel file “Social Media Minutes”. Perform a regression analysis to predict the minutes per week spent on social media, based on the age and gender of the people in the sample. Answer the following questions based on the output.

a. What is the dependent variable?

b. Is each of the independent variables significant at the 5% level (that is, can you be 95% confident that the variable is related to y)? How do you know?

c. What is the regression equation?

d. What is the predicted time spent on social media per week for a 30-year-old female?

e. What is the prediction for a 30-year-old male?

f. Interpret the coefficients for Age and Gender.

g. What is the R-square value? Interpret it.

h. What is the standard error?

i. Create an approximately 95% prediction interval for your predictions in parts d and e.

Deliverables:

Turn in a Word document with your answers to all the questions. If you create a table in Excel to answer part 2d, copy it into Word anyhow. The alternative, writing answers in Excel and only turning in a spreadsheet, is not acceptable – it looks ugly!

For the regression part (question 3) also turn in your Excel spreadsheet in addition to the answers in the Word file so I can check it in case your answers in the Word file are incorrect.