EMBA 8150

Assignment 2: Time Series Forecasting

Collect time series data – either quarterly or monthly or daily – with 4 or 5 seasonal cycles. That is, four or five years of data if quarterly or monthly aggregates are recorded, or 4 to 5 weeks of data if daily observations were recorded.

Create Time Series Forecasting models using the following three techniques:

1. Moving Average

2. Trendline

3. Decomposition

Evaluate each method by computing Bias, MAD, MAPE, and MSE (or Standard Error). Which method worked best on your data? What would be your forecast the next time period based on that method?

Deliverables:

1. Write a report in Word that summarizes your analyses. Copy any tables/charts/graphs from Excel as needed. Ideally the report should stand alone. A client may wish to see the Excel work, but should understand key points about what you did without looking at it.

2. Turn in the Excel spreadsheet anyhow, since I do need to check that your spreadsheet work is accurate.